ENERGY’S FUTURE

An IEEE Central Coast Section PACE Project       Except as noted, the opinions stated here do not represent the opinions of the IEEE or of organizations within the IEEE

Is there Potential for Environmental Collapse?

Examples:

–      West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse

–      Rapid species isolation and extinction

–      Disruption of the themohaline circulation

Part 3-21

West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse

•        See: http://www.co2science.org/subject/w/summaries/wais.htm

•        Most researchers believe this to be very unlikely, but

–       5% chance of happening, per study led by British Antarctic Survey

–       One meter ocean level rise within a century; 5 meters over several hundred years.

•        Similar concerns apply to the ice sheet covering Greenland.

Part 3-22

Political Tipping Points Could Force Accelerated Change

•        Examples:

–       Turbulence in Saudi Arabia

–       Caspian Sea politics

–       China becoming the most powerful energy negotiator

–       Nuclear war in Middle East

–       Persistent disruption of key oil pipelines

–       Terrorist attack on LNG infrastructure

–       Costs of oil after peak of production?

•        Costs of recovery?

–       Terrorism fueled by hopelessness in energy “have not” countries

The Gap Between Rich And Poor Grows

•        Energy is capital intensive

–       Poor countries do not have the resources

–       Impact: burn down the forests.

–       2 B people rely on primary energy sources (e.g. wood).

–       Energy costs in poorer countries range from 12-26 percent (vs a few percent in U.S.).

•        Inequality between rural and urban. 

–       Good(?) news is that people are moving to urban areas.

Source: Geller

• Barriers to Development of New Technologies
• Lack of money or financing
• Misplaced incentives
• Pricing and tax barriers
• Political obstacles
• Regulatory and utility barriers
• Limited supply infrastructure for energy efficient products
• Quality problems (new technology doesn’t live up to claims)
• Insufficient information and training.

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